College Basketball Picks for Saturday, Nov. 7
The first college basketball picks: three Tier 1 underdogs and five Tier 2 picks for Saturday's slate, $10 on every pick. Results fill in as games finish.
College basketball picks start today. This is the pilot week, like football's was: I set the tiers by hand. Automated picks for basketball come once its thresholds are set.
- Tier 1 (three underdogs): Lamar, Northern Iowa and Georgetown. The market has each one losing; the model and the outside research both have them winning outright. Georgetown is the strongest of the three, so it's the moneyline. Lamar and Northern Iowa take the points, because the model only has them by a point.
- Tier 2 (five favorites): Drexel, Marshall, UT Rio Grande Valley, Nebraska and Bradley. All three reads pick the same team, and both projections have it clearing the spread. Bradley's moneyline costs about the same as the spread, so it's the moneyline.
Lines are FanDuel's on Saturday morning; some may move before tip-off. The card shows the line and price each pick was posted at. No parlays this week.
How picks are made
- Tier 1: the model and the outside research agree with each other but not with the betting line.
- Tier 2: all three pick the same team, and both projections have that team beating the spread.
- Skip: the reads disagree, the gap is too small, or the game is a coin flip against the number.
3 Tier 1 · 5 Tier 2 · $80 in play. $10 on every pick and parlay, at the FanDuel price posted before kickoff. Results fill in as games finish.
Tier 1 picks
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
LC
Lamar Cardinals
|
54% | +2.5 |
|
AW
@ Abilene Christian Wildcats
|
46% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
Lamar Cardinals +2.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Lamar Cardinals 54%
- Projected
- Lamar Cardinals by 1
- Line
- Abilene Christian Wildcats −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
NP
Northern Iowa Panthers
|
54% | +5.5 |
|
FP
@ Furman Paladins
|
46% | −5.5 |
Spread pick
Northern Iowa Panthers +5.5
−115
$10 returns $18.70
- Model
- Northern Iowa Panthers 54%
- Projected
- Northern Iowa Panthers by 1
- Line
- Furman Paladins −5.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
MT
Maryland Terrapins
|
34% | −3.5 |
|
GH
@ Georgetown Hoyas
|
66% | +3.5 |
Moneyline pick
Georgetown Hoyas ML
+126
$10 returns $22.60
- Model
- Georgetown Hoyas 66%
- Projected
- Georgetown Hoyas by 4
- Line
- Maryland Terrapins −3.5
Tier 2 picks
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
CR
Colgate Raiders
|
42% | +1.5 |
|
DD
@ Drexel Dragons
|
58% | −1.5 |
Spread pick
Drexel Dragons −1.5
−120
$10 returns $18.33
- Model
- Drexel Dragons 58%
- Projected
- Drexel Dragons by 2
- Line
- Drexel Dragons −1.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
TR
Toledo Rockets
|
31% | +2.5 |
|
MH
@ Marshall Thundering Herd
|
69% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
Marshall Thundering Herd −2.5
−114
$10 returns $18.77
- Model
- Marshall Thundering Herd 69%
- Projected
- Marshall Thundering Herd by 5
- Line
- Marshall Thundering Herd −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
PP
Prairie View A&M Panthers
|
13% | +8.5 |
|
UV
@ UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
|
87% | −8.5 |
Spread pick
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −8.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 87%
- Projected
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 11
- Line
- UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −8.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
PF
Providence Friars
|
24% | +2.5 |
|
NC
vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
76% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
Nebraska Cornhuskers −2.5
−120
$10 returns $18.33
- Model
- Nebraska Cornhuskers 76%
- Projected
- Nebraska Cornhuskers by 7
- Line
- Nebraska Cornhuskers −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
|
PT
Pacific Tigers
|
29% | +1.5 |
|
BB
@ Bradley Braves
|
71% | −1.5 |
Moneyline pick
Bradley Braves ML
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Bradley Braves 71%
- Projected
- Bradley Braves by 5
- Line
- Bradley Braves −1.5
Skips
-
Short of the line
9 games
The model and the research pick the same side, but at least one of them doesn't have it clearing the spread by enough to bet.
Show all 9
- North Dakota @ Winthrop
- Old Dominion @ Bucknell
- Utah Valley @ Weber State
- Fresno State @ UC San Diego
- Houston Christian @ Western Illinois
- North Carolina A&T @ Ohio
- North Carolina Central @ Longwood
- Oakland @ UC Santa Barbara
- SE Louisiana @ Little Rock
-
Coin flip
5 games
Both reads land within a point or two of the spread, or the game is a toss-up.
Show all 5
- San Diego State vs. Colorado
- Western Carolina @ UNC Asheville
- UT Martin @ IU Indianapolis
- Washington State @ High Point
- Denver @ UC Riverside
Scoreboard
| Group | Picks | Staked | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | 3 | $30 | Pending |
| Tier 2 | 5 | $50 | Pending |
| Total | 8 | $80 | Pending |
Pushes return the stake.
This post is for entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice. You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in North Carolina. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.