College Football Picks Week 10: Oct. 31, 2026 Best Bets

Saturday's college football card: five Tier 1 picks, eight Tier 2 picks and three parlays. One unit on each pick, half a unit on each parlay, at the FanDuel odds posted before kickoff. Results fill in after the last game.

How picks are made

Each game is checked three ways: my model's win probability, my research, and the FanDuel line.

• Tier 1: the model and my research agree with each other but not with the betting line. Two reads against the market is the strongest signal I look for.
• Tier 2: all three pick the same team, but the model and my research both think it wins by more than the line says.
• Skip: the reads disagree, the gap is too small, or the price on a big favorite isn't worth it.

This is the pilot week: tiers were set by hand. The automated rules take over next week.

Tier 1 picks

• Kansas State +2.5 (−104) · Pending
  Model: K-State 67% to win. Line: Colorado −2.5.
• Iowa State +9.5 (−108) · Pending
  Model: coin flip (Oklahoma State 51%). Line: Oklahoma State −9.5.
• Rutgers +16.5 (−110) · Pending
  Model: Michigan 73% to win, but not by 17. Line: Michigan −16.5.
• Arkansas +10.5 (−115) · Pending
  Model: Missouri 68% to win, but not by 11. Line: Missouri −10.5.
• Colorado State +7.5 (−115) · Pending
  Model: Utah State 65% to win, but not by 8. Line: Utah State −7.5.

Tier 2 picks

• Illinois ML (−137) · Pending
  Model 70% to win vs. 58% in the market. Line: Illinois −2.5.
• Georgia State −3.5 (−110) · Pending
  Model 72% to win vs. 65% in the market.
• Duke −7.5 (+104) · Pending
  Model 78% to win vs. 73% in the market.
• South Florida −7.5 (−108) · Pending
  Model 81% to win vs. 75% in the market.
• Nebraska −7.5 (−110) · Pending
  Model 80% to win vs. 76% in the market.
• Pittsburgh −7.5 (−110) · Pending
  Model 80% to win vs. 75% in the market.
• NC State −9.5 (−105) · Pending
  Model 79% to win vs. 75% in the market.
• Ohio State −6.5 (−110) · Pending
  Model 80% to win vs. 69% in the market.

Parlays

• 3-leg parlay, +601 · Pending
  South Florida −7.5 + Pittsburgh −7.5 + Nebraska −7.5
• 3-leg parlay, +573 · Pending
  Illinois ML + Duke −7.5 + Georgia State −3.5
• 2-leg parlay, +272 · Pending
  NC State −9.5 + Ohio State −6.5

A three-leg parlay of roughly coin-flip legs hits about 1 time in 8, so +600 is close to a fair price, not a bargain.

Games I skipped

• Marshall @ Old Dominion
  The model liked Old Dominion, but the market and my research both had Marshall. When the model stands alone, I treat it as noise.
• UConn @ Air Force
  The model had UConn at 51%; my research had Air Force. No consensus.
• SMU @ Syracuse
  Syracuse at +275 looked like value, but the projections still had SMU winning. Too speculative.
• Everyone agreed, and the line had it priced in (19 games)
  The model, my research and the market all had the same winner, with nothing left in the price.
  • Utah @ Cincinnati
  • Clemson @ Florida State
  • App State @ Georgia Southern
  • Arizona @ Texas Tech
  • South Carolina @ Oklahoma
  • Washington State @ San Diego State
  • Purdue @ Penn State
  • Virginia @ Wake Forest
  • Auburn @ Ole Miss
  • Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
  • Texas State @ Boise State
  • Army @ Memphis
  • Temple @ East Carolina
  • Kansas @ TCU
  • Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
  • Northwestern @ Oregon
  • Southern Miss @ UL Monroe
  • Oregon State @ Fresno State
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa
• Big favorites on the moneyline (13 teams)
  Priced −580 or shorter. The model rates every one below what that price needs.
  • Notre Dame
  • North Dakota State
  • UCLA
  • Louisville
  • Indiana
  • UNLV
  • Texas
  • Michigan
  • BYU
  • New Mexico
  • Western Michigan
  • Liberty
  • Miami

Scoreboard

Think of a unit as your normal bet. At $10 a unit, this card puts $145 in play. Pushes count as no result and return the stake.

This post is for entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice. You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in North Carolina. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.