NFL Picks for Sunday, Nov. 1: No Bets This Week
No picks on this week's NFL slate: why every game was a pass, and what the model picks in each one. Model results fill in as games finish.
Why there are no picks
Every game was checked three ways: my model's win probability, outside research, and the FanDuel line. A pick needs two of those reads beating the price. This week, nothing cleared the bar.
- In 11 of the 13 games, the model picks the same team the betting market favors, so there's no underdog case for a Tier 1 pick.
- Where the model is more confident than the market (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, the Rams and Seattle), the outside research doesn't have the favorite covering the spread by 3 points or more, which a Tier 2 pick needs.
- In the other two games, the model and the research pick different teams.
Passing is part of the system.
How picks are made
- Tier 1: the model and the outside research agree with each other but not with the betting line.
- Tier 2: all three pick the same team, the model is at least 5 points more confident than the market, and the research has that team beating the spread by 3 or more.
- Skip: the reads disagree, the gap is too small, or the price on a big favorite isn't worth it.
No picks this week, so nothing is in play. The model's pick for every game is below, with the reason it isn't a bet. Model results fill in as games finish.
This post is for entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice. You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in North Carolina. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.