Nickerson Chronicles

No-Vig Calculator

Enter both sides of a moneyline. The calculator removes the sportsbook's margin (the vig) and gives each side's fair win probability and fair odds.

American odds, like -154 or +130.

Side ASide B
Implied probability (with vig) 60.6%43.5%
Fair win probability (no vig) 58.2%41.8%
Fair odds -139+139

The book's hold (vig): 4.1%

How it works

Each price implies a probability: a favorite at -154 implies 154 / (154 + 100) = 60.6%, and an underdog at +130 implies 100 / (130 + 100) = 43.5%. Together they add up to more than 100%, here 104.1%. The extra 4.1% is the sportsbook's margin.

Removing it scales each side so the pair adds to exactly 100%: 60.6 / 104.1 = 58.2% and 43.5 / 104.1 = 41.8%. Those are the market's fair win probabilities, and the fair odds are the prices that would pay out exactly those chances. This is the no-vig probability the odds page compares the model against.

Related: moneyline to spread calculator.

For entertainment and education only.