Nickerson Chronicles

Moneyline to Spread Calculator

Turn a moneyline into a win probability, with the vig removed, and the point spread that probability implies.

American odds, like -154 and +130. Leave the opponent blank to use the one price as is, vig included.

Fair win probability

58.2%

Implied spread

-2.8

How it works

1. Moneyline to probability. Each price implies a probability (-154 is 60.6%, +130 is 43.5%). With both sides entered, the vig is removed by scaling the pair to 100%, so -154 / +130 gives a fair 58.2%. See the no-vig calculator for the full breakdown.

2. Probability to spread. Final margins scatter around the expected margin in a bell curve. If a team is expected to win by M points, its win chance is Φ(M / σ): Φ is the normal curve, and σ is how widely final margins vary in that sport, 13.5 points here. Solving for M turns 58.2% in the NFL into an expected margin of about 2.8 points, a spread of -2.8.

σ is a typical value per sport, not fitted to a game, so treat the spread as a rough guide. Key numbers like 3 and 7 in football aren't modeled.

For entertainment and education only.