College Football Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14
21 Tier 2 picks and two parlays for Saturday's college football card, $10 on every pick. Results fill in as games finish.
21 picks this week, all Tier 2, from the early window to an 11 PM kickoff in Honolulu.
- Strongest reads: Notre Dame, Alabama and James Madison. The model has each one clearing the spread by the widest margins on the card: Notre Dame by 37 against a 28.5-point line, Alabama by 23 against 15.5, and James Madison by 10 against 3.5. They make up the three-leg parlay.
- Underdogs the model has winning: Wake Forest at SMU and Tulane at Rice. The market has both as the dog; the model has Wake Forest by 6 and Tulane by 2, so both are moneyline picks. They make up the two-leg parlay.
- Taking the points: Mississippi State, NC State, Georgia State and Oregon State are underdogs the model has covering.
Picks locked Tuesday at that day's FanDuel lines, and several have moved since (Alabama, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Liberty and Indiana by a point or two). The card shows the locked line and price.
How picks are made
- Tier 1: the model and the outside research agree with each other but not with the betting line.
- Tier 2: all three pick the same team, the model is at least 5 points more confident than the market, and the research has that team beating the spread by 3 or more.
- Skip: the reads disagree, the gap is too small, or the price on a big favorite isn't worth it.
5 Tier 1 · 22 Tier 2 · 2 parlays · $290 in play. $10 on every pick and parlay, at the FanDuel price posted before kickoff. Results fill in as games finish.
Tier 1 picks
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
UAB
|
39% | +2.5 |
@ Temple
|
61% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
Temple −2.5
−105
$10 returns $19.52
- Model
- Temple 61%
- Projected
- Temple by 5
- Line
- Temple −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Kansas State
|
28% | +12.5 |
@ TCU
|
72% | −12.5 |
Spread pick
Kansas State +12.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- TCU 72%
- Projected
- TCU by 10
- Line
- TCU −12.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Fresno State
|
31% | +9.5 |
@ Texas State
|
69% | −9.5 |
Spread pick
Fresno State +9.5
+100
$10 returns $20
- Model
- Texas State 69%
- Projected
- Texas State by 8
- Line
- Texas State −9.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Texas
|
44% | +4.5 |
@ LSU
|
56% | −4.5 |
Spread pick
Texas +4.5
−105
$10 returns $19.52
- Model
- LSU 56%
- Projected
- LSU by 2
- Line
- LSU −4.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Texas Tech
|
47% | +3.5 |
@ Oklahoma State
|
53% | −3.5 |
Spread pick
Texas Tech +3.5
−115
$10 returns $18.70
- Model
- Oklahoma State 53%
- Projected
- Oklahoma State by 1
- Line
- Oklahoma State −3.5
Tier 2 picks
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Auburn
|
45% | −2.5 |
@ Mississippi State
|
55% | +2.5 |
Spread pick
Mississippi State +2.5
+100
$10 returns $20
- Model
- Mississippi State 55%
- Projected
- Mississippi State by 2
- Line
- Auburn −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Duke
|
17% | +13.5 |
@ Miami
|
83% | −13.5 |
Spread pick
Miami −13.5
−105
$10 returns $19.52
- Model
- Miami 83%
- Projected
- Miami by 17
- Line
- Miami −13.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Syracuse
|
47% | −2.5 |
@ NC State
|
53% | +2.5 |
Spread pick
NC State +2.5
+105
$10 returns $20.50
- Model
- NC State 53%
- Projected
- NC State by 1
- Line
- Syracuse −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Wake Forest
|
65% | +1.5 |
@ SMU
|
35% | −1.5 |
Moneyline pick
Wake Forest ML
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Wake Forest 65%
- Projected
- Wake Forest by 6
- Line
- SMU −1.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
|
74% | −7.5 |
@ Maryland
|
26% | +7.5 |
Spread pick
Wisconsin −7.5
−115
$10 returns $18.70
- Model
- Wisconsin 74%
- Projected
- Wisconsin by 11
- Line
- Wisconsin −7.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
James Madison
|
72% | −3.5 |
@ UConn
|
28% | +3.5 |
Spread pick
James Madison −3.5
−120
$10 returns $18.33
- Model
- James Madison 72%
- Projected
- James Madison by 10
- Line
- James Madison −3.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Alabama
|
91% | −15.5 |
@ Vanderbilt
|
9% | +15.5 |
Spread pick
Alabama −15.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Alabama 91%
- Projected
- Alabama by 23
- Line
- Alabama −15.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
East Carolina
|
81% | −11.5 |
@ Charlotte
|
19% | +11.5 |
Spread pick
East Carolina −11.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- East Carolina 81%
- Projected
- East Carolina by 15
- Line
- East Carolina −11.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Tulane
|
55% | +1.5 |
@ Rice
|
45% | −1.5 |
Moneyline pick
Tulane ML
+104
$10 returns $20.40
- Model
- Tulane 55%
- Projected
- Tulane by 2
- Line
- Rice −1.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Boston College
|
2% | +28.5 |
@ Notre Dame
|
98% | −28.5 |
Spread pick
Notre Dame −28.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Notre Dame 98%
- Projected
- Notre Dame by 37
- Line
- Notre Dame −28.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
California
|
18% | +10.5 |
@ Virginia
|
82% | −10.5 |
Spread pick
Virginia −10.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Virginia 82%
- Projected
- Virginia by 16
- Line
- Virginia −10.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
USC
|
25% | +7.5 |
@ Indiana
|
75% | −7.5 |
Spread pick
Indiana −7.5
−105
$10 returns $19.52
- Model
- Indiana 75%
- Projected
- Indiana by 11
- Line
- Indiana −7.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Michigan
|
16% | +11.5 |
@ Oregon
|
84% | −11.5 |
Spread pick
Oregon −11.5
−105
$10 returns $19.52
- Model
- Oregon 84%
- Projected
- Oregon by 17
- Line
- Oregon −11.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic
|
29% | +5.5 |
@ Tulsa
|
71% | −5.5 |
Spread pick
Tulsa −5.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Tulsa 71%
- Projected
- Tulsa by 9
- Line
- Tulsa −5.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Georgia Southern
|
54% | −5.5 |
@ Georgia State
|
46% | +5.5 |
Spread pick
Georgia State +5.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Georgia Southern 54%
- Projected
- Georgia Southern by 2
- Line
- Georgia Southern −5.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Middle Tennessee
|
8% | +20.5 |
@ Liberty
|
92% | −20.5 |
Spread pick
Liberty −20.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Liberty 92%
- Projected
- Liberty by 24
- Line
- Liberty −20.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Ole Miss
|
55% | +2.5 |
@ Oklahoma
|
45% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
Ole Miss +2.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- Ole Miss 55%
- Projected
- Ole Miss by 2
- Line
- Oklahoma −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Oregon State
|
26% | +14.5 |
@ Boise State
|
74% | −14.5 |
Spread pick
Oregon State +14.5
+100
$10 returns $20
- Model
- Boise State 74%
- Projected
- Boise State by 11
- Line
- Boise State −14.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
Troy
|
36% | +2.5 |
@ South Alabama
|
64% | −2.5 |
Spread pick
South Alabama −2.5
−120
$10 returns $18.33
- Model
- South Alabama 64%
- Projected
- South Alabama by 6
- Line
- South Alabama −2.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
UNLV
|
15% | +14.5 |
@ New Mexico
|
85% | −14.5 |
Spread pick
New Mexico −14.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- New Mexico 85%
- Projected
- New Mexico by 18
- Line
- New Mexico −14.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
North Texas
|
62% | −1.5 |
@ UTSA
|
38% | +1.5 |
Moneyline pick
North Texas ML
−122
$10 returns $18.20
- Model
- North Texas 62%
- Projected
- North Texas by 5
- Line
- North Texas −1.5
| Team | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
North Dakota State
|
75% | −6.5 |
@ Hawai'i
|
25% | +6.5 |
Spread pick
North Dakota State −6.5
−110
$10 returns $19.09
- Model
- North Dakota State 75%
- Projected
- North Dakota State by 12
- Line
- North Dakota State −6.5
Parlays
- Notre Dame −28.5
- Alabama −15.5
- James Madison −3.5
Parlay odds
+568
$10 returns $66.80
- Wake Forest ML
- Tulane ML
Parlay odds
+289
$10 returns $38.90
Scoreboard
| Group | Picks | Staked | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | 5 | $50 | Pending |
| Tier 2 | 22 | $220 | Pending |
| Parlays | 2 | $20 | Pending |
| Total | 29 | $290 | Pending |
Pushes return the stake.
This post is for entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice. You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in North Carolina. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.