🏈 NFL Week 8 Picks

Statistical analysis of Week 8 NFL matchups featuring data-driven picks and confidence rankings

🔒 Unanimous Pick (100% Agreement)

Lock of the Week
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs Win (100% Agreement)
The 100% agreement on the Chiefs is no surprise. Kansas City boasts the #5 ranked team defense and the #13 ranked offense. They are hosting a Washington Commanders team whose offense ranks #20 and defense ranks #20. The Commanders' weakness on both sides of the ball is a major liability against a complete team like the Chiefs, making this the lock of the week. KC Defense Rank: #5 overall (175.0 Pts allowed) vs. WAS Offense Rank: #20 overall.
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Lock (100%)

📈 High-Confidence Selections (80% Agreement)

Defensive Dominance
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons Win (80% Agreement)
This pick centers entirely on the strength of the Falcons defense. Atlanta ranks 3rd overall in Team Defense, allowing only 2.7 Yds/Play (Yds/P). They are facing a Dolphins offense that ranks 19th in overall offense. Furthermore, the Dolphins' passing offense (24th) is a significant vulnerability against the Falcons' stingy secondary. While both offenses are middle-of-the-pack, the defensive mismatch heavily favors the home-team Falcons.
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High (80%)
Offensive Mismatch
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts Win (80% Agreement)
The numbers here are staggering. The Indianapolis Colts offense is ranked #1 overall in the league, averaging a blistering 7.2 Yards per Play (Yds/P). They are going up against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks a dismal #28 in total defense. The Colts' offense, led by their #1 ranked rushing attack, should have a field day against a Titans defense that struggles to stop anyone. This is the biggest offensive-defensive mismatch on the Week 8 slate.
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High (80%)
Defensive Slugfest
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots Win (80% Agreement)
Expect a defensive slugfest. Both the Patriots (#8 ranked defense) and the Browns (#10 ranked defense) excel at limiting opponents. The difference-maker appears to be the Patriots' slightly better overall defensive unit, especially against the pass, and the fact that Cleveland's offense ranks #29 overall, one of the worst in the league. The Patriots' defense will likely stifle the Browns, allowing their offense (#24 ranked) just enough to secure the victory at home.
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High (80%)

📊 Other Key Picks to Watch

For the remaining matchups, the models show strong but not overwhelming confidence. Here is a look at the rest of the Week 8 picks and their associated agreement percentages:

60% Agreement
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals Win (60% Agreement)
The Bengals are favored at home against the struggling Jets. Cincinnati's offense should be able to exploit New York's defensive weaknesses.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans
NFL Week 8
Sunday
4:05 PM ET
Houston Texans Win (60% Agreement)
The Texans get a moderate confidence nod at home. Houston's defense will be key to containing San Francisco's balanced attack.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles Win (60% Agreement)
The Eagles are expected to handle the Giants in this NFC East showdown. Philadelphia's home-field advantage and superior roster give them the edge.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens Win (60% Agreement)
The Ravens are favored to win at home. Baltimore's high-powered offense should overwhelm Chicago's defense.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints Win (60% Agreement)
The Saints are favored in this NFC South divisional matchup. New Orleans' home-field advantage gives them a slight edge over Tampa Bay.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos
NFL Week 8
Sunday
4:25 PM ET
Denver Broncos Win (60% Agreement)
Denver gets the nod in this matchup. The Broncos' defense and home altitude could prove troublesome for the Cowboys.
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Moderate (60%)
60% Agreement
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers Win (60% Agreement)
The Steelers are favored at home in this classic matchup. Pittsburgh's defense gives them the edge in a likely low-scoring affair.
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Moderate (60%)

⚠️ Low Confidence Pick (50% Agreement)

This matchup shows the lowest model confidence of the week, indicating high uncertainty and volatility.

Upset Alert
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills
NFL Week 8
Sunday
1:00 PM ET
Carolina Panthers Win (50% Agreement)
Note the low confidence on this pick. Despite Buffalo's superior offensive ranking (#12) and defensive ranking (#7), the models show a near 50-50 split, likely due to Buffalo's inconsistent road performance or other situational factors. This could be an upset special or simply a highly volatile matchup where either team could win. Proceed with caution.
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Toss-Up (50%)