College Basketball
How I make picks
There are several factors that go into placing a bet using the model outputs.
The team the model actually says will win
The point spread
An outside pick sometimes(CBS Sports, Pickswise)
The model usses the following stats to make a pick:
FG – Average Field Goals Made per game
FGA – Average Field Goal Attempts per game
2P – Average 2 points made per game
2PA – Average 2 Pointers attempted a game
3P – Average 3 Pointers made per game
3PA – Average 3 Points attempted a game
FT – Average made a game
FTA – Average Free Throws attempted a game
ORB – Average Offensive Rebonds Per game
DRB – Average Defensive rebounds per game
AST – Average assist per game
STL – Average steals per game
BLK – Average blocks per game
TO – Average turnovers per game
PTS – Averag points per game
These stats from both teams help the model pick who will win the game
The point spread and odds for the game determines if I will bet on the game and how I will bet(ML or points)
I like to bet on a game is the spread is between 3-8 points. I usually stay away from spreads over 10 points. That’s a lot of points
If the model picks an underdog and the spread is less than 3 I will bet ML for the under dog.
If the model picks an underdog and the spread is more than 4 I will go with the points for the under dog
Since the model does not take into account things like injuries I like to see who other sources are picking as well.