🐝 C. Hornets (H-Score)
H-Score, Four Factors breakdown, and Southeast Division intelligence — powered by advanced statistical models.
Last Updated: April 4, 2026
🏀 The Luck Gap — 2026 Season
Hornets Are Outperforming Their Record
Actual Wins
41
W-L Record
Luck Gap
+1.9
Expected – Actual
Expected Wins
42.9
Pythagorean Model
📊 Analyst Note: Charlotte's Pythagorean model — built on a 112.1 H-Score — projects 42.9 expected wins against only 41 actual wins. This +1.9-game gap signals the Hornets are underperforming their underlying efficiency metrics — their true ceiling is higher than the standings reflect.
🏀 Four Factors Radar — The Hornet Profile
Visualizing the Hornets' "shape" vs. the NBA average across Dean Oliver's Four Factors. *TOV% axis is inverted — further out = fewer turnovers.
| Metric | Hornets | NBA Avg | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% (↑ better) | 55.1% | 53.5% | +1.6% |
| TOV% (↓ better) | 13.4% | 13.9% | 0.5% |
| ORB% (↑ better) | 27.8% | 24.9% | +2.9% |
| FT/FGA (↑ better) | 0.198 | 0.218 | -0.020 |
🏆 Southeast Division — H-Score Standings
Ranked by H-Score (Hornet Score) rather than W-L to reveal each team's "True Power" within the division.
| Rank | Team | H-Score | Exp Wins | Luck Gap | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Magic | 113.0 | 44.9 | +1.9 | 53.3% | 12.7% | 29.1% |
| 2 | 🐝 Charlotte Hornets Hornets | 112.1 | 42.9 | +1.9 | 55.1% | 13.4% | 27.8% |
| 3 | Miami Heat | 102.3 | 41.5 | +1.5 | 53.6% | 12.9% | 23.5% |
| 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 100.8 | 38.1 | +2.1 | 54.3% | 14.5% | 24.8% |
| 5 | Washington Wizards | 78.7 | 17 | -5 | 51.1% | 15.8% | 24.2% |
H-Score is a composite metric weighted by Net Rating (35%), eFG% (25%), TOV% (20%, inverted), and ORB% (20%). A score of 100 equals the league average.
About the H-Score Model
The H-Score (Hornet Score) is a proprietary composite metric designed to evaluate NBA team strength through the lens of Dean Oliver's Four Factors framework. It weights Net Rating / SRS at 35%, Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) at 25%, Turnover Percentage (TOV%, inverted) at 20%, and Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%) at 20%. All components are z-score normalized across the full 30-team league and scaled to a 100-point baseline. A higher H-Score indicates a stronger overall team relative to the rest of the NBA.