Tonight's game between NC State and Liberty isn't just about talent—it's about efficiency. To truly understand who holds the edge, we turn to Dean Oliver's **Four Factors of Winning**, which break down basketball success into four critical areas: shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws.
Here is the analytical breakdown of how the Wolfpack and the Flames stack up in the 2025-2026 season data.
🔥 Factor 1: Shooting Efficiency (The 40% Factor)
This is the most critical factor, measuring how well a team scores when they shoot the ball. We look at Field Goal Percentage (FG%) and Three-Point Percentage (3P%).
| Team | FG% (Offense) | FG% (Defense) | 3P% (Offense) | 3P% (Defense) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 0.500 | 0.435 | 0.398 | 0.352 | NC State (Offense) |
| Liberty | 0.574 | 0.470 | 0.425 | 0.284 | Liberty (Defense) |
Analysis: This factor is a strength-on-strength battle. NC State’s offense is highly efficient, shooting 50.0% from the field and 39.8% from three. However, Liberty’s defense is exceptional, holding opponents to just 28.4% from beyond the arc. The decisive factor here will be whether the Wolfpack's offense can overcome the Flames' perimeter defense.
🔒 Factor 2: Ball Security and Turnovers (The 25% Factor)
Turnovers are the quickest way to lose possessions. This factor looks at how well a team protects the ball and how well its defense forces mistakes.
| Team | Turnovers Per Game (Offense) | Turnovers Per Game (Defense) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 9.4 | 14.8 | NC State |
| Liberty | 8.4 | 11.9 |
Analysis: Liberty is remarkably careful with the ball (8.4 TOV/G). But NC State's defense is built to disrupt, forcing a high 14.8 turnovers per game from opponents. This defensive pressure is NC State's clear edge. If the Wolfpack can push Liberty's turnovers above their season average, they will generate critical scoring opportunities.
💥 Factor 3: Rebounding (The 20% Factor)
Winning the rebounding battle means more shots for you and fewer for your opponent. We focus on Offensive Rebounding (ORB), which translates directly into second-chance points.
| Team | Offensive Rebounds Per Game (Offense) | Offensive Rebounds Per Game (Defense) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 9.9 | 8.5 | NC State |
| Liberty | 6.5 | 9.9 |
Analysis: This is a definitive advantage for NC State. The Wolfpack crash the offensive glass, pulling down 9.9 ORB per game, and they limit their opponents. Liberty, conversely, is weak on the offensive boards (6.5 ORB/G) and vulnerable on the defensive glass (allowing 9.9 ORB/G). Expect NC State to win the possession battle here and cash in on second-chance opportunities.
🎯 Factor 4: Free Throws (The 15% Factor)
The final factor looks at two things: getting to the line (Free Throw Attempts, FTA) and capitalizing once there (FT%).
| Team | FTA Per Game (Offense) | FTA Per Game (Defense) | FT% (Offense) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 23.2 | 25.4 | 0.770 | |
| Liberty | 15.5 | 15.0 | 0.848 | Liberty |
Analysis: NC State earns trips to the line more frequently (23.2 FTA/G) but also fouls too often (25.4 FTA allowed/G). Liberty, while not getting to the line as much, is absolutely lights-out when they do, shooting an elite 0.848 from the stripe. Liberty’s precision gives them the narrow advantage here. In a tight game, those free points are golden.
The Verdict: What Wins Tonight?
Based on the Four Factors, NC State holds the distinct advantage in **Turnovers** and **Rebounding**, which translate directly into extra possessions. Liberty counters with elite **Shooting Defense** and phenomenal **Free Throw Percentage**.
The deciding battle will be in the paint. If NC State’s rebounding dominance holds up and they exploit Liberty's weakness on the offensive glass, they will have the cushion needed to overcome Liberty's efficient defense. However, if the game is close late, Liberty’s 84.8% free throw shooting is a nightmare for the Wolfpack.
Prediction: NC State’s edge in creating possessions via rebounding and forcing turnovers should be enough to secure the win, but they must avoid fouling and letting Liberty win the free throw battle.