Efficiency Mismatch: Why Duke Will Run Stanford Out of the Gym
Saturday, Jan 17 | 6:00 PM ET
The oddsmakers are expecting a competitive game on the Farm, but the metrics suggest a blowout is brewing. While Stanford is a competent team, they simply lack the offensive horsepower to keep up with the most efficient scoring machine in the ACC, making this spread look short.
The Model Says: Duke is playing a different sport
Our "C-Score" composite rating creates a matchup profile that screams "mismatch" in nearly every key statistical category.
- Shooting Efficiency Gulf: Duke leads the conference with a blistering 61.1% True Shooting Percentage (TS%). Stanford is significantly behind at just 54.4%. In a 40-minute game, that gap translates to 8-10 points of expected value.
- Dominance on the Glass: When Duke does miss, they go get it. The Blue Devils boast an elite 56.2% Total Rebound Percentage compared to Stanford's 52.1%.
- Power Rating Disparity: Our model assigns Duke a C-Score of 35.15, the highest in our ACC dataset. Stanford clocks in at 19.01. This 16-point gap suggests the current market expectation is too low.
Betting Recommendation
Stanford's path to covering requires Duke to have an abnormally poor shooting night and get beat on the boards—two things the data says are highly unlikely. Back the Blue Devils to control this game from wire-to-wire.
The Play: Duke -10.5
Unit Size: 1 Flat Unit
What Do You Think? Is the cross-country travel factor being undervalued here, or is Duke simply too much for the Cardinal? Join our Facebook Group: The Analytics Lab and let us know in the comments!