Welcome back to the Sports Analytics desk! As we dive into the AAC Week 9 slate, we're applying the same data-driven approach we use for the ACC. Our proprietary regression models have weighed historical performance and recent trends, and we’re cross-referencing those insights with key team offensive and defensive metrics.

The AAC slate features a few games with high model confidence and several toss-ups where the predictive edge is razor-thin.

The Week 9 AAC Analysis

Our model picks are supported by a **Confidence Score** (on a 0-100 scale) to quantify the strength of the prediction.

The High-Confidence Plays (Confidence Score ≈ 75.9)

Four games this week show strong consensus among our models, primarily driven by clear statistical imbalances.

South Florida vs. Memphis

Model Pick: Memphis (75.9 Confidence)

This pick is heavily supported by statistics. Memphis boasts a potent offense (Rank 3, 437.6 Yds/G) facing a mid-tier South Florida defense (Rank 5). Critically, Memphis also has an elite **Total Defense (Rank 2)**, allowing only 335.1 Yds Allowed/G. The models project the home team's strength on both sides of the ball to dominate this matchup.

Navy vs. Florida Atlantic

Model Pick: Navy (75.9 Confidence)

The models favor Navy, driven by the sheer statistical weakness of their opponent's defense. Florida Atlantic ranks near the bottom in **Total Defense (Rank 13)** at 396.7 Yds Allowed/G. While Navy's offense is unconventional (Rank 4), the models believe they will exploit the porous defense for a high-confidence victory.

Tulsa vs. Temple

Model Pick: Tulsa (75.9 Confidence)

Tulsa is the clear model favorite here. They face a **Temple** defense that ranks 7th in the AAC. The confidence score of 75.9 is strong, suggesting that Tulsa’s performance metrics outweigh any potential home-field advantage for Temple.

UTSA vs. Army

Model Pick: UTSA (75.9 Confidence)

The models see a clear advantage for **UTSA** in this matchup. While Army's defense is solid (Rank 6), the overall metrics point strongly toward the Roadrunners securing a high-confidence win at home.

The Statistical Toss-Ups (Confidence Score ≈ 50)

Two games this week were essentially split decisions in our ensemble models, signaling that the teams are evenly matched or possess offsetting strengths.

Connecticut vs. Rice

Model Pick: Connecticut (50.1 Confidence)

This game is a coin flip. Connecticut is barely favored despite both teams having below-average offenses (Rice is Rank 12). The deciding factor is likely Rice’s slight edge in Total Defense (Rank 8), which our models barely discount due to home field or other subtle factors. This game is best viewed as a small-wager or avoid altogether.

North Texas vs. Charlotte

Model Pick: North Texas (50.1 Confidence)

Another toss-up confirmed by a 50.1 Confidence Score. **North Texas** has the AAC's best **Total Offense (Rank 1)**, but their Defense (Rank 8) is mediocre. They face **Charlotte**, whose Defense (Rank 12) is one of the worst in the league, but whose offense (Rank 14) is also weak. This is a battle between North Texas's high-powered offense and Charlotte's willingness to give up yards. The lack of confidence means the models see this as highly volatile.

Conclusion: AAC Week 9 Betting Strategy

This week provides a few opportunities for high-confidence picks where the data strongly aligns.